Read about this WebQuest, and then go to Process for step-by-step instructions.
Central investigation question
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Introduction
March Madness is the time of the year when NCAA teams from all over the country compete in a complicated tournament to find out who is the best. A total of 65 teams play a series of games over 3 weeks. The winner is crowned the national champion – the best in the country.
In this web quest, we’ll look at how the teams are invited to the conference and how predictions are made about who will win. Then you’ll have a chance to make your own prediction.
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Task
In this webquest, you’ll develop your own mathematical model for predicting who will win the NCAA March Madness tournament. You’ll look at statistics like RPI, conference record, road record, wins vs. ranked opponents, how the teams finished the regular season, and more. Then you’ll put together the statistics you think are most important to predict a winner.
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Central investigation question
Develop your own model for predicting the winner of the NCAA tournament. Based on this model, who do you predict will win?
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Process
Step 1: How teams are ranked
Of the 65 teams in the March Madness tournament, 31 teams get automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. The other 34 are chosen by a selection committee. They are also “seeded” or ranked to determine who plays who in each regional group.
Some of the criteria the committee might look at are:
- RPI
- conference record
- road record
- wins vs. ranked opponents
- how a team finishes the regular season
Read about the selection process and the various criteria and complete handout MM2A to look at the importance of each criteria. What other criteria do you think might be good predictors?
Step 2: RPI
The Ratings Percentage Index or RPI is an important statistic in college basketball. Read about how it is calculated and then answer the questions on handout MM2B.
Choose 5 or more NCAA teams and make a spreadsheet to track their RPI each week. (You may also graph this data if you like.) For each week that there is a significant change in RPI, look at who the team played and offer an explanation for why the RPI changed the way it did.
Step 3: Designing your model
Now, it’s your turn to create a model to predict who will win the March Madness tournament. You can include any data you want in this, including the criteria the selection committee uses, seeding, or other data. Think creatively! Give your model a name like the “Tom’s Magic March Madness Index.”
List your criteria along with notes on the reason you included what you did. Then set up a spreadsheet to calculate each team’s score according to your model. Finally, predict a winner!
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Resources
Use these web resources to conduct your research and investigation.
Resources for Step 1
Resources for Step 2
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(This handout is available in Word.)
March Madness – Handout MM2A
Name:
Date:
Period:
Instructions: As you explore the web resources in Step 1 of the webquest, answer these questions.
1. What percentage of teams in the tournament are selected “at-large”?
2. What is seeding? Why is it desirable to have the top seeded teams spread throughout the 4 regions?
3. Why do you think each of the following criteria is important and what are the strengths and weaknesses of each in establishing a ranking?
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Strengths |
Weaknesses |
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Overall record |
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Strength of schedule |
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RPI |
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Performance in recent games |
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Road record |
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4. How does subjective judgment (a person’s opinion not based on statistics) factor into this process?
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March Madness – Handout MM2B
Name:
Date:
Period:
Instructions: As you explore the web resources in Step 2 of the webquest, answer these questions.
1. What is the formula for RPI?
2. Why do you think each part is weighted as it is?
3. How is strength of schedule calculated? Why is the opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage included?
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Evaluation
Step 1 – How the teams are ranked
1 (beginning) – Most questions were not answered or there was less than 50% accuracy; student did not come up with additional criteria.
2 (developing) – Most of the questions were answered with 60% accuracy; student came up with 1-2 additional criteria.
3 (accomplished) – All the questions were answered with 75% accuracy; student came up with 2-3 additional criteria that are appropriate.
4 (exemplary) – All the questions were answered correctly with complete information; student came up with 4-5 additional criteria that are creative and appropriate.
Step 2 – RPI
1 (beginning) – Questions on the handout were not answered correctly; spreadsheet to track RPI was not set up correctly.
2 (developing) – Some questions on handout were answered correctly; spreadsheet to track RPI was set up and completed; explanations for RPI changes were not given or did not make sense.
3 (accomplished) – Most questions on handout were answered correctly; spreadsheet to track RPI was set up appropriately and reasonable explanations for RPI changes were given.
4 (exemplary) – All questions on handout were answered correctly; spreadsheet to track RPI was set up appropriately, a graph was included, and good explanations for RPI changes were given.
Step 3 – Other possible structures
1 (beginning) – No coherent model was developed.
2 (developing) – Student model was developed, but did not have new elements or include rationales for the items included.
(Bonus points if your team finishes in the Final Four!)
3 (accomplished) – Student developed a solid model with rationales for the items included.
(Bonus points if your team finishes in the Final Four!)
4 (exemplary) – Student developed a very creative model with solid rationales for the items included.
(Bonus points if your team finishes in the Final Four!)